I’ve been following these markets closely since Russia did its thing in 2022. Back then the markets freaked our about a supply disruption that didn’t fully materialize since the shadow fleet and BRICS nations that didn’t care about sanctions mostly kept Russian oil flowing.
This time the market took more of a “have a pint and wait for all this to blow over” approach, since the middle east regularly gets into dustups that can be absorbed by SPR’s and global reserves… But they miscalculated just how mentally retarded (I mean that literally, not as a slur) the US and Israeli government is right now.
The only reason the markets Haven’t fully exploded yet is because China basically stopped importing half of its oil demand almost instantly, which kept western reserves from draining too fast- but they’ve run out of rope and are now upping refinery runs and opening imports again. The only way out now is demand destruction via sustained crude prices above $120/bbl, which means radical inflation and recession.
Has China started buying again? I wonder whether they’ll go back to pre-war levels. I think they’ll go to as low as they can in an attempt to save as much of the import economies their exports depend on.
There’s prolly gonna be European slapdown on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refinery capacity. Societies gonna split open over the contradiction between supporting Ukraine against Russia and surviving oil-driven inflation…
I feel like the market could have waited because it was standard government procedure to use reserves until the crisis is over. The problem now is that the crisis will likely last longer than the reserves.
I won’t be surprised if governments fall due to the economic impacts this will cause.
Thank you for the added info.
YIKES.
Yikes is right lol
I’ve been following these markets closely since Russia did its thing in 2022. Back then the markets freaked our about a supply disruption that didn’t fully materialize since the shadow fleet and BRICS nations that didn’t care about sanctions mostly kept Russian oil flowing.
This time the market took more of a “have a pint and wait for all this to blow over” approach, since the middle east regularly gets into dustups that can be absorbed by SPR’s and global reserves… But they miscalculated just how mentally retarded (I mean that literally, not as a slur) the US and Israeli government is right now. The only reason the markets Haven’t fully exploded yet is because China basically stopped importing half of its oil demand almost instantly, which kept western reserves from draining too fast- but they’ve run out of rope and are now upping refinery runs and opening imports again. The only way out now is demand destruction via sustained crude prices above $120/bbl, which means radical inflation and recession.
Has China started buying again? I wonder whether they’ll go back to pre-war levels. I think they’ll go to as low as they can in an attempt to save as much of the import economies their exports depend on.
There’s prolly gonna be European slapdown on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refinery capacity. Societies gonna split open over the contradiction between supporting Ukraine against Russia and surviving oil-driven inflation…
Shit’s gonna be brilliant. 🥹
I feel like the market could have waited because it was standard government procedure to use reserves until the crisis is over. The problem now is that the crisis will likely last longer than the reserves.
I won’t be surprised if governments fall due to the economic impacts this will cause.
I only have an understanding of these things at a high level, so I always appreciate Lemmy nerds filling me in on the details.
Feels like we’re already in a recession, though, and have been for some time.