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Cake day: February 14th, 2025

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  • I split this evolving situation according to different scenarios and try to weight their relative probability. What’s the motive, where’s the gain?

    A) 80% Some variation of pure incompetence where they tried some shit with whatever aim and weren’t prepared for the hard pushback they got served quickly and decisively. Current events are capitulation, at least for a moment.

    B) 15% We are in a Russia-like scenario where this administration needs to govern from fear : population fear deportation and can’t elect another government and fear from the companies that he can crash anything at will without remorse : pay regularly to avoid the destruction of your business model. Mafia protection tax will be lucrative for the few people at the very top.

    C) 5% Wider destruction of society with genocide and a new flavour of slavery. Luckily this one is difficult and stoping at a mid point, pivoting to B, is easier. Achieving stability in a “network city” scenario doesn’t seems plausible to me : one small example: try to manufacture stuff to give your ruler class quality healthcare without any scale because war killed so much people… modern stuff is outrageously complicated.



  • Attributing all the merit to Carney in a time of election seems a bit… optimistic? No doubt he was an insider on this brilliant strategy but giving him the unshared paternity is a bit of a stretch.

    Whoever came up with this first isn’t ultimately important : I will gladly vote for someone smart enough to understand the strategy and with the connections to push it and see it implemented. No other PM candidate can have me sleep at night with the trust that we try to protect our interest with the best strategy available for our limited ressources.

    Also the “if the US won’t lead the world, we will” comment gave such a hopeful vibe, it reminded me of Obama or Jack Layton campaign style.