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Cake day: June 7th, 2025

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  • My brother was studying to become a Jesuit and there was this running joke amongst the Jesuits about praying where they would go “Why? God doesn’t exist.” This may sound hypocritical and it kind of is, but they consider the religion more a moral framework rather than something to rigorously believe in. That’s also why Pope Francis resonated with many non-believers because, at least the modern Jesuits, apply the moral lessons of the New Testament with a healthy dose of rationality (they are considered the intellectual branch of the church for a reason).

    Very few, if any, Jesuit these days believe in the existence of a god, but they find value in the moral framework and how they can apply that to make this world a better place. It’s the only religious order I can stomach to have conversations with.




  • We are not ready though. Mentally, sure, but in case of an all out war we would still run out of ammo, bombs and manpower in weeks. Only now do we see the first factories and production lines coming online based on the investments of the past years and even then not all the supply lines have been adjusted for it. Europe could probably be ready by the end of 2027 at the earliest, provided it removes its command and control dependency from the US.

    Realistically, Europe won’t be ready until 2030. That’s not to say we wouldn’t be able to get ready sooner, we absolutely would, if we were to switch to a war economy. But nobody wants that, because it ruins your economy and is grossly expensive.

    That doesn’t mean we would get crushed, that wouldn’t be the case, but we would be on the defensive for a while until the gears of war are properly greased.












  • Infrastructure spending? This is Russia we are talking about. From every ruble spent by the government, at least 75% disappears if not more. The systemic corruption in Russia will obliterate any supposed advantage they have by ending the war.

    And those foreign assets are only partially government assets. These include investment accounts of normal Russians, payment to companies that have been held back, etc… We are talking billions but Russia is bleeding billions every month now, and the release of those assets will only partially mitigate the unfolding souffle like collapse of the Russian economy. It’s not a sudden crash, just a general return to poverty.

    A return of fossil fuel sales to prewar income would help, but I don’t see that happening as long as they occupy the Donbas and Crimea. Some sanctions will be lifted in case of a peace agreement but not even regime change will roll back all of the sanctions.