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Joined 4 months ago
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Cake day: April 4th, 2026

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  • I’ve seen a few news stories through the years where I thought the stock movement was out of whack with the underlying security, and options are a way to “bet” on that being right. It’s cheap and easy to just watch. Almost every time I was wrong and only found out a few times why. That probably just means I’m bad at it.

    A few more things to remember. If you look at the first link at the bottom of my post, there are ways to structure buying/selling the calls/puts so that you can have a strategy that pays off if the stock goes up, down, or stays the same. How to set those up and the math involved is beyond me. The other thing is that for every trade with options someone makes there’s an entity on the other side of it. You might be buying a part of the leg of someone else’s more complex trade where a big investment house is trying to manage their risk and keep it below a certain level.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/business/robinhood-suicide-alex-kearns/

    Stay smart and safe, invest money you can afford to lose in products you understand.


  • Shorting a stock is a bad plan. You typically need collateral (cash, or a line of credit, or something) in case the short goes bad. Shorting a stock can have a theoretically infinite loss since if you buy a share of a company and it goes bankrupt, your maximum loss is the value of the share. Short selling means you’ve sold a share you don’t own with a pinky swear that you’ll buy one back to replace it. A stock likely won’t, but could, go infinitely high. In that case you’d have infinite losses.

    The other way is options trading. You can do this with your normal broker, possibly. You’ll need to make statements about your income level, savings, risk tolerance, and check a box saying you’ve read some mandated documentation. The process can seem like click-through stuff for a normal website, but it’s absolving the brokerage of fault if your decisions go bad.

    Options work a little like an insurance contract. If you are worried that you’re too heavily tilted towards a certain company (but still believe in the investment), you can buy “puts” that help mitigate the risk if the underlying security. A “call” is a contract that lets you hedge the other way. They let you get exposure to a security without having to purchase the shares. An options contract is a contract that gives you the right, but not the obligation to buy (call) or sell (put) some number (typically 100) of an underlying security by a certain date. Selling options naked is a topic better left for someone else to explain all the risks involved (and I covered a strategy that has infinite risk).

    A call pays off if the stock shoots up before the contract expires, and a put pays off if the stock tanks. To do what you’re saying you’d have to buy puts (I’m not an investment advisor, I’m not your investment advisor, this is not investment advice). If it sounds like gambling that’s because it is. Everybody already had the idea to bet against SPCX. There are platforms out there that let you look and see without having to risk money, and that’s probably the best course of action.

    I picked the date September 18, 2026 at random. If you had a September 18 130P, then it went up 21.19% Friday, kudos. The “last price” field is PER SHARE, and the contract was probably for 100 shares, so that’s $2030, meaning you had four figures on the line there. If none of that makes sense, if the activity in the volume field doesn’t make sense, then it’s better to sit it out. In that realm you’re swapping your money for that contract, and someone else is swapping that contract for your (now their) money. If the contract expires out of the money, you lose.

    Some resources:


  • That being said, I will grant that there’s no evidence of this.

    The question about whether the feds are on lemmy is falsifiable. There just needs to be enough people in congress willing to make that a primary issue to overrule whatever security laws/apparatus are in place and publish the info. There’s even recent precedent of one guy doing just that. Waiting until there’s complete evidence won’t move the ball forward at all. Even having a bad discussion has a random chance of moving the ball forward (subject to time constraints).

    Not Suspicious on the Internet:

    • Being Wrong
    • Poor spelling or Grammar
    • Asking questions, even if they’re dumb

    Suspicious on the Internet:

    • Calls to extreme violence in a discussion where everyone was generally chill
    • Calls to not discuss a topic until there’s evidence to discuss
      • Drawing parallels between documented historical events and current events don’t count
    • Suggesting a course of action that’s either prohibitively expensive or time consuming as the only path forward



  • The adult entertainers are the VC investors. They’re pretty world-wise, but can’t be well versed on everything. So when someone sells them on something that sounds pretty good, they bite. The CEOs are the bros laughing about how great everything is, except in real life they don’t have consequences. All the CEOs get paid like it might be their last job so if they never work again they’re still fine.

    It’s still impressive to see what the LLMs cook up when asked about programming problems. I’m coming back to programming from some time away from it, and it’ll give you the answer to the question you asked. If you ask it for an old way of doing something, it’ll tell you that. Then it slips and shows you a new way of doing something (I’m specifically talking about std::cout versus std::format and std::print), and the doors are wide open all of a sudden.

    Then it gives you a technique for something and you spend hours debugging code only for the LLM to say that the solution it provided won’t work.

    Prompt engineering is going to be a real thing whether we like it or not.













  • reddit cant afford [the V3 captcha system] but google lets them use it in exchange for AI/datamining

    Had no idea they used that. I edited all my comments to crap then deleted them around the time the admin monkied with the backend database, and stopped using old.reddit to browse once I found lemmy. I once went through the effort of making a temp account to comment on someone else’s comment there because they had suggested trying something specifically dangerous and didn’t seem to know about it. I doublechecked later and the comment I wrote was caught in some filter, likely the result of the account being too new. I can’t imagine what garbage that site will be in the years to come.


  • abusive scraping

    As opposed to the plain old scraping they do to train AI, and generate revenue by selling user comments for others to train AI.

    I read a half-cocked internet theory that a certain someone might’ve purchased twitter just to gain access to an ex-gf’s personal tweets. I judged it as possible but unlikely, as that’s a lot of money to spend on such a thing.

    Now, we’ve all heard stories about reddit blocking accounts for no published reason, and tracking folks down across accounts/IP addresses/etc. That code must be pretty expansive to do the things they’ve done. So one has the thought: if you’ve ever reached out to the reddit hive mind for some kind of support with a personal issue of any kind then that data about you is still floating around in their database and tied to whatever alternate accounts you have, even if it was the “good old days” when you did it.

    Abusive scraping, my ass.